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The report, by the British Future thinktank, identifies what it calls an “ethnic minority voting gap” that cost Theresa May 600,000 votes in the June 2017 General Election, adding

Around a third of ethnic minority voters see themselves as always voting Labour, compared to one in seven white British voters. Solid allegiance to Labour is commonly found among older voters who were first generation Commonwealth migrants to the UK; among voters who live in solidly Labour areas; and more often among British Muslim and Afro-Caribbean voters than among Indian or Chinese voters. Working-class ethnic minority voters who live in Labour ‘heartland’ seats also appear to have remained much more loyal to the party than their white British working-class counterparts.

However, Labour’s electoral advantage from this strong support is weakened somewhat by the concentration of ethnic minority voters in some of Labour’s safest seats. The Runnymede Trust calculates that half of ethnic minority Britons live in the 75 most diverse seats, where the electorate is one-third minority, while half do not. Most of these seats have fairly large Labour majorities. There are, however, some highly marginal seats, such as Chelsea and Kensington in London, with large ethnic minority populations.

Labour has the potential to try to develop a second flank of core support among younger ethnic minority voters too. Ethnic minorities make up around one-fifth of the first time vote and are as likely or slightly more likely to be university graduates as white Britons. If younger voters, particularly those who go to university and those who hold comparatively liberal political views, were to turn from Labour supporters into Labour loyalists, then the party might develop a next generation core vote among ethnic minority voters. This is the group whom the Conservatives and other parties need to contest in the future if they wish to reduce Labour’s advantage with minority voters.

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